Hurricane Prediction downsized

From USA Today:

Thursday, hurricane researcher William Gray at Colorado State University said the season won't be as bad as he had predicted. Gray and his forecast team reduced the number of expected hurricanes from nine to seven and said a monster storm like Katrina is unlikely.

In May, government forecasters predicted 13 to 16 tropical storms, eight to 10 of which could grow into hurricanes, during the six-month Atlantic hurricane season that started June 1. The hurricane center will update its forecast Tuesday.

Conditions were favorable for hurricane development much earlier last year than is typical, and they persisted, producing a record number of storms. Those conditions — warmer sea-surface temperatures and the absence of high-altitude, west-to-east wind shear that breaks up storms as they're forming — weren't repeated this June and July.

“All of the ingredients that were in place last year simply weren't this year,” Feltgen said. “Now winds are lightening up, sea surfaces are warming, and all the conditions are becoming quite favorable for activity to really take off like it's supposed to this time of year.”